Friday, October 28, 2011
Why Mitt Will Be The Nominee
The press has made a big deal about the lack of Republican enthusiasm for Mitt Romney to the point that they have focused on the ABM (Anyone But Mitt) candidate--whether it was Michelle Bachmann back in the summer, "Wild" Rick Perry in September, the "non" candidate Chris Christie, and now the "Herminator" Herman Cain. Each candidate was evidence that Romney was done for in the race to be the nominee. But in each case, this "flavor" of the moment focus by the media has been to the benefit of Mitt. Here's why.
The Pew Research Center released their study "The Media Primary" looking at how the candidate have fared in the press and in the blogosphere. They found that the Republican candidates, with the exception of the barely mentioned Gingrich and Santorum, have received more negative coverage in the press and in the blogosphere, though Paul was the only one who had a net positive rating online (no mystery there). For the most part, Bachmann and Perry--the two frontrunners at different points of the study, earned more and more negative coverage the more they lead the pack, resulting in a destruction of their campaigns and a free fall back into the pack. The only candidate who had consistent ratings throughout was Romney--his positive and negative numbers changed very little throughout the entire study. And Obama, who enjoyed fawning treatment in 2008, has the highest negative numbers of any candidate in the race, though Republicans won't believe it.
And now is Cain's turn. In the Pew Study, Cain was emerging as the frontrunner of the moment. In an example of media priming, Cain started to earn positive treatment back in late August, which had the effect of positive public evaluations by October--repetitive media coverage has the effect of influencing public evaluations of the candidate. In this case, a chorus of positive coverage leads to Cain as the frontrunner. So just as he starts to break from the pack, the media throws on the brakes. This Howard Kurtz article is typical of the recent coverage of Cain ("'Tired' Cain Campaign Slows Down). In it, Kurtz documents the number of gaffes Cain has recently committed:
Expect to see more just like this.
So back to Romney--this strategy of allowing other candidates to take the hits means that the media is spending no time tearing him down. All the negative coverage of Cain's weirdness, Perry's lack of message discipline, and Bachmann's campaign destruction is no time about his support for liberal causes in the past or the issues that he has flip flopped on recently. It means he goes into the start of the primaries relatively unscathed. Not too stupid.
The Pew Research Center released their study "The Media Primary" looking at how the candidate have fared in the press and in the blogosphere. They found that the Republican candidates, with the exception of the barely mentioned Gingrich and Santorum, have received more negative coverage in the press and in the blogosphere, though Paul was the only one who had a net positive rating online (no mystery there). For the most part, Bachmann and Perry--the two frontrunners at different points of the study, earned more and more negative coverage the more they lead the pack, resulting in a destruction of their campaigns and a free fall back into the pack. The only candidate who had consistent ratings throughout was Romney--his positive and negative numbers changed very little throughout the entire study. And Obama, who enjoyed fawning treatment in 2008, has the highest negative numbers of any candidate in the race, though Republicans won't believe it.
And now is Cain's turn. In the Pew Study, Cain was emerging as the frontrunner of the moment. In an example of media priming, Cain started to earn positive treatment back in late August, which had the effect of positive public evaluations by October--repetitive media coverage has the effect of influencing public evaluations of the candidate. In this case, a chorus of positive coverage leads to Cain as the frontrunner. So just as he starts to break from the pack, the media throws on the brakes. This Howard Kurtz article is typical of the recent coverage of Cain ("'Tired' Cain Campaign Slows Down). In it, Kurtz documents the number of gaffes Cain has recently committed:
- He claimed he was against abortion even in rape and incest, but then told Piers Morgan that it was up to the woman and her family to decide whether they want an abortion or not--"not some politician. Not some bureaucrat." He then walked back the statement when the criticisms flew as a statement made because he was tired;
- He told Wolf Blitzer that he would consider exchanging Gitmo detainees for US soldiers held hostage. Again, it was a mistake the came from a lack of sleep;
- He supported an electric fence to kill immigrants seeking a better life in the US--a joke, but then it wasn't;
- His 9-9-9 plan turned into a 9-0-9 plan
Expect to see more just like this.
So back to Romney--this strategy of allowing other candidates to take the hits means that the media is spending no time tearing him down. All the negative coverage of Cain's weirdness, Perry's lack of message discipline, and Bachmann's campaign destruction is no time about his support for liberal causes in the past or the issues that he has flip flopped on recently. It means he goes into the start of the primaries relatively unscathed. Not too stupid.
